The government of Premier Francois Legault is promising to "carefully examine" a proposal for a new gas liquefaction plant and terminal in the Saguenay-Lac St. Jean region that would be just as big as the GNL-Quebec megaproject the province rejected in 2021 after years of opposition, Le Devoir revealed in an exclusive dispatch Friday.

The proposal by Marinvest Energy Canada, a subsidiary of Bergen, Norway-based Marinvest Energy, would also require a new pipeline through several hundred kilometres of wilderness to connect the plant with TC Energy's Canada-wide gas network, just as GNL-Quebec intended, Le Devoir writes. The gas would be produced by primarily by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a methane-intensive process that is prohibited in Quebec.

After squashing the previous LNG proposal, Quebec became the world's first jurisdiction to ban oil and gas exploration in 2022.

"We believe there is a strong business case for an LNG [liquefied natural gas] project in Quebec aimed at exporting Canadian natural gas to international markets, particularly in Europe," Greg Cano, one of three Marinvest Energy Canada directors and the only one not based in Norway, told Le Devoir in an email. "We believe Quebec can play a key role in diversifying export options for Canadian natural gas, particularly at a time when relying solely on the U.S. market presents increasing challenges."

That optimism runs counter to an analysis released just six weeks ago by Investors for Paris Compliance (IPC), which pointed to an expected 40% increase in global LNG production between 2024 and 2028 to argue that there's no business case for a new terminal in Quebec. European LNG demand was down 18% between 2022 and 2024, and the group said Canadian exporters would also have trouble competing in Asian markets, The Canadian Press reported at the time.

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"Investing in infrastructure that will be very expensive and likely won't be profitable will weaken our economy rather than strengthen it," economist and IPC senior advisor Renaud Gignac told the news agency.

IPC warned that inflation could drive the cost of the $18-billion GNL-Quebec project above $33 billion, making it impossible to complete without taxpayer subsidies.

"These are considerable investments that mobilize public capital and labour as well," Gignac said. "When you direct resources to this type of project, you make choices, and we believe there are options that could be more profitable in the long term, for both public and private investors."

One of Marinvest's identified lobbying targets, Hydro-Quebec, has been going all-in on those other options, with a planned $185-billion investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and new transmission over the next decade.

Cano also tried to position LNG as "carbon-free" energy, even though methane is a climate super-pollutant with about 84 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over the crucial 20-year span when humanity will be scrambling to get climate change under control. The Legault rejected the notion that gas is carbon-free in its response to the GNL-Quebec bid, "emphasizing in particular that the project that was to be built in Saguenay risked 'disadvantaging the energy transition' in the countries that would purchase this liquefied natural gas," Le Devoir says.

A provincial spokesperson told the paper it was too soon to say whether the project would be eligible for subsidies, and the office of Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson wouldn't say whether it would qualify as one of the "nation-building" projects the Carney government is looking for.

But "the current context is disrupting several aspects of our economy," a spokesperson for provincial Economy and Energy Minister Christine Frechette told Le Devoir in a statement. "We have always said that if new projects are presented, we are ready to examine them carefully. That is what we will do with this one."

The spokesperson added that "social acceptability remains an essential condition for any project, and there will have to be benefits for Quebec."

In a release, Greenpeace Canada urged the Carney government to exclude the Marinvest proposal from its list of nation-building projects, while calling on Quebec to "close the door on new fossil fuel transportation and export projects so that it can focus on renewable energy."

"We should be building offshore wind farms, not floating fossil fuel plants", said Greenpeace Senior Energy Strategist Keith Stewart. "There is no way that a fossil fuel project with so little consultation and such a weak business case should be on Mark Carney's list of projects that can bypass environmental laws."

Marinvest has hired two lobbyists to carry its message to the provincial government, Le Devoir reports, and two in Ottawa, Greenpeace says.

Source: The Energy Mix